I have had a number of wonderful/sad/bittersweet/ conversations with people over the past few months regarding the probability of near term human extinction as a result of climate disruption. One of the problems for people who haven’t followed the discussions from people who understand near term human extinction is that the threads don’t fit together easily. Dr. McPherson has an update page that gives technical data (accessible to the layman) on his site. But if you’re trying to figure this out on your own, you need some help. I had begun to cobble together a fact sheet for those who didn’t know how the various parts fit together. Then, in anticipation of my need, Dr. McPherson created his own fact sheet on his website. It avoids sentimentality or any sort of ‘hopium’ (hopium defined as hope without an anchor in the same area code as reality; ‘Hopium’ because some undeserved hope seems to act as an opiate). And it cuts to the chase. That doesn’t mean you’ll read it all and be ‘so what’? His predictions may be off by a hair or two, but events are in the saddle and ride mankind.
The article starts by laying out the facts:
Fact: This planet has not harbored humans at 3.3 C or higher above baseline (i.e., the beginning of the industrial revolution). The number may be much lower. The jury is still out.
Fact: Humans are animals that depend on myriad other species for survival. As with all other animals, humans require clean air, potable water, healthy food, and the ability to maintain body temperature to sustain themselves.
Fact: Humans will die without a living planet that continuously supplies the elements listed above.
Fact: So far, all humans born into the physical realm have died. There is no rational basis for expecting any human to avoid this fate.
Fact: The Sixth Mass Extinction is under way.
Fact: All species have gone extinct or will go extinct. There is no rational basis for expecting Homo sapiens to avoid this fate.
The rest is here