This article begins with the usual ‘i could be wrong’ denials, but if it’s right, we are in fact too late to party like it’s 2029

This is what I was trying to warn about at theTampa fringe show. Loss of ice and release of methane sufficient to shut down the planet with heat.

There is another more recent explanation that ties to wetlands. Climate change also drives more rainfall, as a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. Each 1°C in global temperature rise corresponds to about a 7% rise in the ability of the atmosphere to hold water vapor. Again, more rain means more anaerobic wetland decomposition. There is strong evidence that certain East African wetlands have been prolific in their recent methane releases, for example this article from just two weeks ago: “In ominous sign for global warming, feedback loop may be accelerating methane emissions.”

Atmospheric methane levels have risen nearly 7% since 2006, and the past 2 years saw the biggest jumps yet, even though the pandemic slowed oil and gas production, presumably reducing methane leaks. Now, researchers are homing in on the source of the mysterious surge. Two new preprints trace it to microbes in tropical wetlands. Ominously, climate change itself might be fueling the trend by driving increased rain over the regions.

The article explains it all. Those of us in the climate research know that the minutes are ticking by. I’m just hoping I gave everyone enough warning.